Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Hector Sandoval is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Matt Schnell has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Matt Schnell threatens submissions; Hector Sandoval has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Hector Sandoval has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Hector Sandoval has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Matt Schnell has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Hector Sandoval
oldest →L
SUBvs Wilson Reis · Jul 16W
vs Fredy Serrano · Dec 16L
KOvs Dustin Ortiz · Aug 17 Matt SchnellL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24L
SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24L
SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25L
KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Hector SandovalMetricMatt Schnell
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.98Δ 1.02 — meaningful gap-0.04
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Hector SandovalMatt Schnell
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Hector Sandoval(4 fights)Matt Schnell(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +25.9|Blue -25.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -14.0|Blue +14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Hector SandovalTargetMatt Schnell
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Hector Sandoval edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns3
Control0:58
16Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:06Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
