Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tim KennedyL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Roger Gracie · Jul 13W
vs Michael Bisping · Apr 14L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Sep 14L
KOvs Kelvin Gastelum · Dec 16 Rafael NatalL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16L
vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16L
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tim KennedyMetricRafael Natal
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.94evenly matched on net striking+0.62
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Tim KennedyRafael Natal
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tim Kennedy(5 fights)Rafael Natal(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -2.4|Blue +2.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.9|Blue +1.9
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +60.0|Blue -60.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Tim KennedyTargetRafael Natal
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tim Kennedy edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
