Flyweight

3 Rounds

Joshua Van won · U-DEC R3

Elo1542

Elo1599

Edgar ChairezvsJoshua VanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · Saturday, September 14, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joshua Van won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Joshua Van wins(68.7%)

Actual result: Joshua Van wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joshua Van at -278 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Edgar Chairez enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Joshua Van enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Joshua Van has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Joshua Van has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Edgar Chairez has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Edgar Chairez

Red Corner

Joshua Van

Blue Corner

+225

(31%)

Vegas Odds

-278

(74%)

1542

Elo

1599

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'5"

180.34 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Edgar ChairezW4 streak

oldest →

vs Tatsuro Taira · Jul 23

SUBvs Daniel Lacerda · Feb 24

SUBvs CJ Vergara · Mar 25

vs Felipe Bunes · Feb 26

SUBvs Bruno Silva · Jun 26

latest

Joshua VanW5 streak

oldest →

vs Rei Tsuruya · Mar 25

KOvs Bruno Silva · Jun 25

vs Brandon Royval · Jun 25

KOvs Alexandre Pantoja · Dec 25

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Edgar ChairezMetricJoshua Van

3.65

Strikes / min

8.43

4.75

Strikes absorbed / min

5.82

46%

Strike defense

58%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.82

38%

Takedown defense

75%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.10Δ 3.71 — meaningful gap+2.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Edgar ChairezJoshua Van

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Edgar Chairez(6 fights)Joshua Van(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -57.4|Blue +57.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +140.0|Blue -140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Edgar ChairezTargetJoshua Van

By target zone

32% acc · 58%

Head

51% acc · 67%

67% acc · 15%

Body

80% acc · 20%

81% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

41% acc · 97%

Distance

109

58% acc · 92%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

56% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Edgar Chairez rounds

even

Joshua Van rounds

Round 1Edgar Chairez edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Joshua Van edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

71Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:14Control

Round 3Joshua Van edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:27

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

79 / 189

Sig Strikes

118 / 200

39.3%

Sig Str %

55.3%

87 / 197

Total Strikes

183 / 276

0 / 2

TDs

3 / 3

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:27

Ctrl Time

4:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joshua Van	23 / 48	23 / 48	0 / 0	0
1	Edgar Chairez	40 / 81	40 / 81	0 / 0	0
2	Joshua Van	71 / 108	101 / 144	2 / 2	0
2	Edgar Chairez	28 / 73	33 / 78	0 / 1	1
3	Joshua Van	24 / 44	59 / 84	1 / 1	0
3	Edgar Chairez	11 / 35	14 / 38	0 / 1	0

Edgar Chairez

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7

Joshua Van

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights11