Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tyron Woodley enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Tyron Woodley is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Rory MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rory MacDonaldL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Robbie Lawler · Nov 13W
KOvs Tarec Saffiedine · Oct 14L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15L
vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16 Tyron WoodleyL4 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 18L
vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 19L
vs Gilbert Burns · May 20L
KOvs Colby Covington · Sep 20L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Mar 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rory MacDonaldMetricTyron Woodley
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.95Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap-0.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rory MacDonaldTyron Woodley
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rory MacDonald(10 fights)Tyron Woodley(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -40.6|Blue +40.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +21.0|Blue -21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rory MacDonaldTargetTyron Woodley
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:25Control
Round 2Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:00
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control3:07
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
