Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Pineda threatens submissions; Alex Caceres has lost 38% of fights by sub.
- Alex Caceres has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).
- Alex Caceres has a 10cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex CaceresL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs SeungWoo Choi · Oct 21L
vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22W
KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22L
vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23L
vs Sean Woodson · May 24 Daniel PinedaL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Herbert Burns · Aug 20L
KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 20W
SUBvs Tucker Lutz · Mar 23L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 24L
vs Darren Elkins · Oct 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex CaceresMetricDaniel Pineda
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.12Δ 1.53 — meaningful gap-0.41
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Alex CaceresDaniel Pineda
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Caceres(10 fights)Daniel Pineda(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +10.7|Blue -10.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +98.0|Blue -98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alex CaceresTargetDaniel Pineda
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Alex Caceres edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control3:02
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:16Control
Round 2Daniel Pineda edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:43
9Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:36Control
Round 3Alex Caceres edged it
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns1
Control0:41
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
