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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sergio Moraes won · SUB R3

Elo1378

Elo1353

Sergio MoraesvsRenee ForteUFC Prediction Result

UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · Saturday, October 13, 2012Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Sergio Moraes won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:10

Model Prediction: Sergio Moraes wins(64.4%)

Actual result: Sergio Moraes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sergio Moraes at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sergio Moraes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Sergio Moraes

Red Corner

Renee Forte

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1378

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'7"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sergio MoraesL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tim Means · Feb 18

SUBvs Ben Saunders · Sep 18

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Mar 19

KOvs Warlley Alves · May 19

KOvs James Krause · Nov 19

latest

Renee ForteL2 streak

oldest →

vs Terry Etim · Feb 13

KOvs John Makdessi · Sep 13

vs Francisco Trevino · Mar 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sergio MoraesMetricRenee Forte

2.42

Strikes / min

2.08

3.73

Strikes absorbed / min

2.12

59%

Strike defense

63%

1.20

TDs / 15 min

2.32

75%

Takedown defense

66%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.31Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap-0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sergio MoraesRenee Forte

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sergio Moraes(10 fights)Renee Forte(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +25.0|Blue -25.0

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sergio MoraesTargetRenee Forte

By target zone

36% acc · 81%

Head

20% acc · 46%

38% acc · 19%

Body

70% acc · 27%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 27%

By position

35% acc · 88%

Distance

26% acc · 62%

25% acc · 6%

Clinch

63% acc · 19%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

83% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sergio Moraes rounds

even

Renee Forte rounds

Round 1Sergio Moraes edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns2

Control1:33

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:13

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 3Sergio Moraes edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control1:34

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 45

Sig Strikes

26 / 76

34.3%

Sig Str %

32.7%

27 / 58

Total Strikes

38 / 88

4 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

55.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:20

Ctrl Time

0:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Renee Forte	5 / 24	15 / 34	0 / 0	0
1	Sergio Moraes	3 / 10	5 / 13	2 / 4	0
2	Renee Forte	14 / 33	16 / 35	0 / 0	0
2	Sergio Moraes	8 / 21	8 / 21	1 / 6	0
3	Renee Forte	7 / 19	7 / 19	0 / 0	0
3	Sergio Moraes	5 / 14	14 / 24	1 / 1	1

Sergio Moraes

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights13

Renee Forte

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights4