Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Joe Doerksen threatens submissions; Tom Lawlor has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Tom Lawlor has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Tom Lawlor has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tom Lawlor (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Tom Lawlor
oldest →W
KOvs Jason MacDonald · May 12L
vs Francis Carmont · Nov 12W
SUBvs Michael Kuiper · Apr 13W
KOvs Gian Villante · Jul 15L
vs Corey Anderson · Mar 16 Joe DoerksenL2 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs CB Dollaway · Sep 10 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Tom LawlorMetricJoe Doerksen
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.09Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap-1.36
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Tom LawlorJoe Doerksen
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Tom Lawlor(8 fights)Joe Doerksen(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +139.6|Blue -139.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Tom LawlorTargetJoe Doerksen
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Tom Lawlor edged it
Sig. strikes39
Takedowns0
Control0:21
Knockdowns1
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:22Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Joe Doerksen edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:03
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:09Control
