Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Francisco Rivera enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Francisco Rivera is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Alex Soto has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Francisco Rivera has 68pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Alex Soto (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Alex Soto
oldest →L
KOvs Michael McDonald · Nov 11 Francisco RiveraL3 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 14W
KOvs Alex Caceres · Jun 15L
SUBvs John Lineker · Sep 15L
vs Brad Pickett · Feb 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Alex SotoMetricFrancisco Rivera
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-2.07Δ 2.98 — meaningful gap+0.91
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Alex SotoFrancisco Rivera
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Alex Soto(2 fights)Francisco Rivera(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -6.1|Blue +6.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -168.0|Blue +168.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Alex SotoTargetFrancisco Rivera
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns2
Control0:46
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
Round 2Francisco Rivera edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
1Knockdowns
Round 3Francisco Rivera edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control0:08
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
