Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Damir Ismagulov has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Damir Ismagulov has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rafael AlvesL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Nov 21L
KOvs Drew Dober · Jul 22L
vs Nurullo Aliev · Feb 23 Damir IsmagulovL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Joel Alvarez · Feb 19W
vs Thiago Moises · Aug 19W
vs Guram Kutateladze · Jun 22L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 22L
vs Grant Dawson · Jul 23 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rafael AlvesMetricDamir Ismagulov
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.45Δ 2.37 — meaningful gap+0.92
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rafael AlvesDamir Ismagulov
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rafael Alves(4 fights)Damir Ismagulov(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -18.1|Blue +18.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +49.7|Blue -49.7
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rafael AlvesTargetDamir Ismagulov
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Damir Ismagulov edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
4:46Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Damir Ismagulov edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:10Control
Round 3Damir Ismagulov edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:14
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:44Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
