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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Joe Proctor won · SUB R3

Elo1360

Elo1355

Joe ProctorvsJustin EdwardsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · Saturday, June 6, 2015New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Joe Proctor won

SUB · Round 3 · 4:58

Style matchupJoe Proctor: Well-roundedvsJustin Edwards: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Joe Proctor wins(60.8%)

Actual result: Joe Proctor wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Proctor at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Joe Proctor enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Joe Proctor has 43pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Joe Proctor

Red Corner

Justin Edwards

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1360

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Joe ProctorL3 streak

oldest →

vs Cristiano Marcello · Feb 14

KOvs Justin Salas · Jul 14

SUBvs Yancy Medeiros · Dec 14

KOvs Magomed Mustafaev · Dec 15

KOvs Bryan Barberena · Apr 17

latest

Justin EdwardsL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jorge Lopez · Sep 11

vs John Maguire · Nov 11

SUBvs Josh Neer · Oct 12

KOvs Brandon Thatch · Aug 13

vs Ramsey Nijem · Jan 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Joe ProctorMetricJustin Edwards

3.39

Strikes / min

2.68

3.93

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

59%

Strike defense

51%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.14

70%

Takedown defense

27%

1.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Joe ProctorJustin Edwards

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Joe Proctor(8 fights)Justin Edwards(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.3|Blue -5.3

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -331.0|Blue +331.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Joe ProctorTargetJustin Edwards

By target zone

29% acc · 63%

Head

34% acc · 75%

82% acc · 21%

Body

55% acc · 19%

73% acc · 16%

Leg

40% acc · 6%

By position

35% acc · 82%

Distance

30% acc · 68%

67% acc · 18%

Clinch

67% acc · 32%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Joe Proctor rounds

even

Justin Edwards rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:04Control

Round 2Justin Edwards edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:02

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 3Joe Proctor edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:27

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:49Control

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 175

Sig Strikes

63 / 171

39.3%

Sig Str %

35.7%

69 / 177

Total Strikes

71 / 179

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 3

—

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

2:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Justin Edwards	18 / 52	23 / 57	1 / 1	0
1	Joe Proctor	22 / 44	22 / 44	0 / 0	0
2	Justin Edwards	29 / 71	29 / 71	1 / 1	0
2	Joe Proctor	21 / 63	22 / 64	0 / 0	0
3	Justin Edwards	16 / 48	19 / 51	0 / 1	0
3	Joe Proctor	24 / 68	25 / 69	0 / 0	3

Joe Proctor

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Justin Edwards

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7