Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tarec Saffiedine enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tarec Saffiedine (52.9%).
- Rory MacDonald has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Rory MacDonaldL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Robbie Lawler · Nov 13W
vs Tyron Woodley · Jun 14L
KOvs Robbie Lawler · Jul 15L
vs Stephen Thompson · Jun 16 Tarec SaffiedineL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Hyun Gyu Lim · Jan 14W
vs Jake Ellenberger · Jan 16L
vs Dong Hyun Kim · Dec 16L
vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Jun 17 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Rory MacDonaldMetricTarec Saffiedine
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.95evenly matched on net striking+0.99
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Rory MacDonaldTarec Saffiedine
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Rory MacDonald(10 fights)Tarec Saffiedine(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -3.5|Blue +3.5
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +2.1|Blue -2.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -161.0|Blue +161.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Rory MacDonaldTargetTarec Saffiedine
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control0:13
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Tarec Saffiedine edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns0
Control0:00
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Rory MacDonald edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:07
Knockdowns1
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
