Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brandon Royval threatens submissions; Matt Schnell has lost 30% of fights by sub.
- Matt Schnell has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brandon Royval (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Brandon Royval
oldest →W
vs Brandon Moreno · Feb 24W
vs Tatsuro Taira · Oct 24L
KOvs Manel Kape · Dec 25W
SUBvs Lone'er Kavanagh · Jul 26 Matt SchnellL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24L
SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24L
SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25L
KOvs Alessandro Costa · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Brandon RoyvalMetricMatt Schnell
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.29Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap-0.04
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Brandon RoyvalMatt Schnell
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Brandon Royval(10 fights)Matt Schnell(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +45.7|Blue -45.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -245.0|Blue +245.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Brandon RoyvalTargetMatt Schnell
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Matt Schnell edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:13
Knockdowns0
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:54Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
