Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Yorgan De Castro enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Yorgan De Castro has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Justin Tafa (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Justin TafaL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Dec 21W
KOvs Parker Porter · Feb 23W
KOvs Austen Lane · Sep 23L
vs Karl Williams · Mar 24L
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Feb 25 Yorgan De CastroL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Carlos Felipe · Oct 20L
KOvs Jarjis Danho · Apr 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Justin TafaMetricYorgan De Castro
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.06evenly matched on net striking-1.39
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Justin TafaYorgan De Castro
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Justin Tafa(9 fights)Yorgan De Castro(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +96.4|Blue -96.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Justin TafaTargetYorgan De Castro
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Yorgan De Castro edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control1:09
Knockdowns0
4Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
