Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Marlon Moraes enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Raphael Assuncao has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Raphael Assuncao has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Raphael Assuncao
oldest →L
vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 19L
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 20L
KOvs Ricky Simon · Dec 21W
vs Victor Henry · Oct 22L
SUBvs Davey Grant · Mar 23 Marlon MoraesL4 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 20L
KOvs Merab Dvalishvili · Sep 21L
KOvs Song Yadong · Mar 22 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Raphael AssuncaoMetricMarlon Moraes
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.72Δ 1.88 — meaningful gap-1.16
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Raphael AssuncaoMarlon Moraes
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Raphael Assuncao(10 fights)Marlon Moraes(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +76.2|Blue -76.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -36.0|Blue +36.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Raphael AssuncaoTargetMarlon Moraes
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Marlon Moraes edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:15Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
