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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Cyrille Diabate won · SUB R1
Elo1353
Cyrille Diabate
Elo1352

Cyrille DiabatevsChad GriggsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · Saturday, November 17, 2012Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Cyrille Diabate won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:24

Model Prediction: Cyrille Diabate wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Cyrille Diabate wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cyrille Diabate at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Cyrille Diabate has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Cyrille Diabate (53.5%).
  • Cyrille Diabate has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cyrille Diabate
Red Corner
VS
Chad Griggs
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+115
(47%)
1353
Elo
1352
52
Age
48
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'6"
Height
6'1"
205.74 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cyrille DiabateL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Steve Cantwell · Mar 11
L
SUBvs Anthony Perosh · Nov 11
W
vs Tom DeBlass · Apr 12
L
KOvs Jimi Manuwa · Feb 13
L
SUBvs Ilir Latifi · Mar 14
latest
Chad Griggs
oldest →
L
SUBvs Travis Browne · Apr 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cyrille DiabateMetricChad Griggs
4.06
Strikes / min
2.67
1.78
Strikes absorbed / min
2.22
60%
Strike defense
46%
1.17
TDs / 15 min
1.51
53%
Takedown defense
41%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.28Δ 1.83 — meaningful gap+0.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1515 vs 1488Strikes47.8 vs 0.0Takedowns0.6 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs -1.0
Cyrille DiabateChad Griggs

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Cyrille Diabate(8 fights)Chad Griggs(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Recent Form
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Striker Score
Red +1.9|Blue -1.9
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cyrille DiabateTargetChad Griggs

By target zone

6
100% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
0% acc
Body
1
100% acc · 50%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 50%

By position

1
50% acc · 17%
Distance
2
100% acc · 100%
3
100% acc · 50%
Clinch
0
0% acc
2
100% acc · 33%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Cyrille Diabate rounds
0
even
0
Chad Griggs rounds
Round 1Cyrille Diabate edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns2
Control1:55
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:07Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
6 / 7
Sig Strikes
2 / 3
85%
Sig Str %
66%
9 / 10
Total Strikes
4 / 6
2 / 2
TDs
1 / 2
100%
TD %
50%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:55
Ctrl Time
0:07

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chad Griggs2 / 34 / 61 / 20
1Cyrille Diabate6 / 79 / 102 / 21

Cyrille Diabate

StanceSouthpaw
Height78.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights8

Chad Griggs

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights2