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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Cynthia Calvillo won · SUB R1

Elo1455

Elo1426

Cynthia CalvillovsPoliana BotelhoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · Saturday, November 17, 2018Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina

Official fight result

Cynthia Calvillo won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:48

Style matchupCynthia Calvillo: Pressure fightervsPoliana Botelho: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Cynthia Calvillo wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Cynthia Calvillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cynthia Calvillo at +150 American odds

+$150 profit

$250 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cynthia Calvillo enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Poliana Botelho enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Cynthia Calvillo threatens submissions; Poliana Botelho has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Cynthia Calvillo has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Cynthia Calvillo

Red Corner

Poliana Botelho

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1455

Elo

1426

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'8"

162.56 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cynthia CalvilloL5 streak

oldest →

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Nov 20

KOvs Jessica Andrade · Sep 21

KOvs Andrea Lee · Nov 21

vs Nina Nunes · Aug 22

vs Loopy Godinez · Apr 23

latest

Poliana BotelhoL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Syuri Kondo · May 18

vs Lauren Mueller · Apr 19

vs Gillian Robertson · Oct 20

vs Luana Carolina · May 21

SUBvs Karine Silva · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cynthia CalvilloMetricPoliana Botelho

4.41

Strikes / min

2.90

4.12

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

64%

Strike defense

54%

1.80

TDs / 15 min

0.85

77%

Takedown defense

76%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29evenly matched on net striking+0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cynthia CalvilloPoliana Botelho

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cynthia Calvillo(10 fights)Poliana Botelho(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +28.3|Blue -28.3

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +140.0|Blue -140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cynthia CalvilloTargetPoliana Botelho

By target zone

47% acc · 32%

Head

9% acc · 17%

79% acc · 50%

Body

25% acc · 17%

33% acc · 18%

Leg

80% acc · 67%

By position

36% acc · 41%

Distance

31% acc · 83%

100% acc · 9%

Clinch

0% acc

79% acc · 50%

Ground

100% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cynthia Calvillo rounds

even

Poliana Botelho rounds

Round 1Cynthia Calvillo edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns2

Control1:51

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 41

Sig Strikes

6 / 20

53%

Sig Str %

30%

35 / 54

Total Strikes

10 / 24

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

66%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:51

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Poliana Botelho	6 / 20	10 / 24	0 / 0	0
1	Cynthia Calvillo	22 / 41	35 / 54	2 / 3	1

Cynthia Calvillo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights12

Poliana Botelho

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7