← All fights/Event page

Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Cynthia Calvillo won · SUB R3

Elo1455

Elo1362

Cynthia CalvillovsPearl GonzalezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · Saturday, April 8, 2017Buffalo, New York, USA

Official fight result

Cynthia Calvillo won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:45

Model Prediction: Cynthia Calvillo wins(81.3%)

Actual result: Cynthia Calvillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cynthia Calvillo at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cynthia Calvillo enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Cynthia Calvillo threatens submissions; Pearl Gonzalez has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Cynthia Calvillo has 77pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Pearl Gonzalez has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cynthia Calvillo

Red Corner

Pearl Gonzalez

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1455

Elo

1362

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'4"

162.56 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cynthia CalvilloL5 streak

oldest →

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Nov 20

KOvs Jessica Andrade · Sep 21

KOvs Andrea Lee · Nov 21

vs Nina Nunes · Aug 22

vs Loopy Godinez · Apr 23

latest

Pearl Gonzalez

oldest →

vs Poliana Botelho · Oct 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cynthia CalvilloMetricPearl Gonzalez

4.41

Strikes / min

2.23

4.12

Strikes absorbed / min

4.07

64%

Strike defense

57%

1.80

TDs / 15 min

1.04

77%

Takedown defense

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29Δ 2.13 — meaningful gap-1.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cynthia CalvilloPearl Gonzalez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cynthia Calvillo(10 fights)Pearl Gonzalez(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +92.5|Blue -92.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cynthia CalvilloTargetPearl Gonzalez

By target zone

19% acc · 52%

Head

28% acc · 76%

76% acc · 32%

Body

50% acc · 5%

100% acc · 16%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

29% acc · 96%

Distance

31% acc · 92%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cynthia Calvillo rounds

even

Pearl Gonzalez rounds

Round 1Cynthia Calvillo edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:06Control

Round 2Cynthia Calvillo edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control3:12

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Cynthia Calvillo edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control2:12

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

50 / 169

Sig Strikes

37 / 112

33.3%

Sig Str %

32%

65 / 188

Total Strikes

43 / 118

1 / 1

TDs

2 / 3

100%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

5:24

Ctrl Time

1:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Pearl Gonzalez	17 / 52	17 / 52	1 / 2	0
1	Cynthia Calvillo	27 / 110	30 / 113	0 / 0	1
2	Pearl Gonzalez	7 / 27	10 / 30	1 / 1	1
2	Cynthia Calvillo	14 / 32	20 / 41	0 / 0	0
3	Pearl Gonzalez	13 / 33	16 / 36	0 / 0	0
3	Cynthia Calvillo	9 / 27	15 / 34	1 / 1	2

Cynthia Calvillo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights12

Pearl Gonzalez

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach—

Fights2