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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Nina Nunes won · S-DEC R3

Elo1455

Elo1496

Cynthia CalvillovsNina NunesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · Saturday, August 13, 2022San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Nina Nunes won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCynthia Calvillo: Pressure fightervsNina Nunes: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Cynthia Calvillo wins(50.2%)

Actual result: Nina Nunes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cynthia Calvillo at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cynthia Calvillo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Cynthia Calvillo

Red Corner

Nina Nunes

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1455

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

162.56 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cynthia CalvilloL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jessica Eye · Jun 20

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Nov 20

KOvs Jessica Andrade · Sep 21

KOvs Andrea Lee · Nov 21

vs Loopy Godinez · Apr 23

latest

Nina Nunes

oldest →

SUBvs Mackenzie Dern · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cynthia CalvilloMetricNina Nunes

4.41

Strikes / min

4.39

4.12

Strikes absorbed / min

3.47

64%

Strike defense

55%

1.80

TDs / 15 min

0.24

77%

Takedown defense

73%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29evenly matched on net striking+0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cynthia CalvilloNina Nunes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cynthia Calvillo(10 fights)Nina Nunes(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -41.6|Blue +41.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -217.0|Blue +217.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cynthia CalvilloTargetNina Nunes

By target zone

19% acc · 33%

Head

18% acc · 44%

65% acc · 35%

Body

33% acc · 10%

56% acc · 31%

Leg

67% acc · 46%

By position

34% acc · 98%

Distance

29% acc · 97%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cynthia Calvillo rounds

even

Nina Nunes rounds

Round 1Cynthia Calvillo edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:02

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Cynthia Calvillo edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:44

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Cynthia Calvillo edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns1

Control0:23

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 139

Sig Strikes

39 / 133

32%

Sig Str %

28.3%

66 / 159

Total Strikes

47 / 142

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

61%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:09

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nina Nunes	10 / 37	10 / 37	0 / 0
1	Cynthia Calvillo	10 / 40	10 / 40	1 / 2
2	Nina Nunes	9 / 39	16 / 47	0 / 1
2	Cynthia Calvillo	9 / 41	27 / 61	1 / 1
3	Nina Nunes	20 / 57	21 / 58	0 / 0
3	Cynthia Calvillo	29 / 58	29 / 58	1 / 3

Cynthia Calvillo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights12

Nina Nunes

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights2