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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Carla Esparza won · U-DEC R3

Elo1455

Elo1497

Cynthia CalvillovsCarla EsparzaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · Saturday, December 30, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Carla Esparza won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCynthia Calvillo: Pressure fightervsCarla Esparza: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Cynthia Calvillo wins(70.6%)

Actual result: Carla Esparza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cynthia Calvillo at -220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cynthia Calvillo enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Cynthia Calvillo has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Cynthia Calvillo has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Cynthia Calvillo

Red Corner

Carla Esparza

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1455

Elo

1497

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'1"

162.56 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cynthia CalvilloL5 streak

oldest →

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Nov 20

KOvs Jessica Andrade · Sep 21

KOvs Andrea Lee · Nov 21

vs Nina Nunes · Aug 22

vs Loopy Godinez · Apr 23

latest

Carla EsparzaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Marina Rodriguez · Jul 20

KOvs Yan Xiaonan · May 21

vs Rose Namajunas · May 22

SUBvs Zhang Weili · Nov 22

vs Tecia Pennington · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cynthia CalvilloMetricCarla Esparza

4.41

Strikes / min

2.19

4.12

Strikes absorbed / min

2.87

64%

Strike defense

54%

1.80

TDs / 15 min

3.28

77%

Takedown defense

47%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29evenly matched on net striking-0.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cynthia CalvilloCarla Esparza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cynthia Calvillo(10 fights)Carla Esparza(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -42.4|Blue +42.4

Recent Form

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -147.0|Blue +147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cynthia CalvilloTargetCarla Esparza

By target zone

33% acc · 92%

Head

24% acc · 56%

75% acc · 8%

Body

60% acc · 6%

0% acc

Leg

95% acc · 38%

By position

24% acc · 61%

Distance

33% acc · 85%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

43% acc · 6%

85% acc · 29%

Ground

67% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cynthia Calvillo rounds

even

Carla Esparza rounds

Round 1Cynthia Calvillo edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control3:51

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Carla Esparza edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3Carla Esparza edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:30

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 112

Sig Strikes

48 / 138

41.3%

Sig Str %

34.3%

57 / 131

Total Strikes

62 / 153

1 / 3

TDs

2 / 9

33.3%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

4:21

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Carla Esparza	6 / 19	16 / 30	0 / 0	1
1	Cynthia Calvillo	11 / 17	28 / 34	1 / 1	0
2	Carla Esparza	20 / 47	21 / 48	2 / 4	0
2	Cynthia Calvillo	16 / 40	17 / 41	0 / 1	0
3	Carla Esparza	22 / 72	25 / 75	0 / 5	0
3	Cynthia Calvillo	11 / 55	12 / 56	0 / 1	0

Cynthia Calvillo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights12

Carla Esparza

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights15