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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Andrea Lee won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1455

Elo1477

Cynthia CalvillovsAndrea LeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, November 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Andrea Lee won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Style matchupCynthia Calvillo: Pressure fightervsAndrea Lee: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Andrea Lee wins(51.5%)

Actual result: Andrea Lee wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrea Lee at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cynthia Calvillo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Andrea Lee enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Cynthia Calvillo has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Andrea Lee has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cynthia Calvillo

Red Corner

Andrea Lee

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1455

Elo

1477

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'6"

162.56 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cynthia CalvilloL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jessica Eye · Jun 20

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Nov 20

KOvs Jessica Andrade · Sep 21

vs Nina Nunes · Aug 22

vs Loopy Godinez · Apr 23

latest

Andrea LeeL5 streak

oldest →

vs Maycee Barber · Mar 23

vs Natalia Silva · Aug 23

vs Miranda Maverick · Feb 24

vs Montana De La Rosa · Jun 24

vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cynthia CalvilloMetricAndrea Lee

4.41

Strikes / min

4.62

4.12

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

64%

Strike defense

61%

1.80

TDs / 15 min

1.65

77%

Takedown defense

53%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.29evenly matched on net striking+0.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cynthia CalvilloAndrea Lee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cynthia Calvillo(10 fights)Andrea Lee(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -22.4|Blue +22.4

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cynthia CalvilloTargetAndrea Lee

By target zone

18% acc · 38%

Head

30% acc · 55%

46% acc · 45%

Body

67% acc · 36%

89% acc · 17%

Leg

80% acc · 10%

By position

31% acc · 100%

Distance

40% acc · 99%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cynthia Calvillo rounds

even

Andrea Lee rounds

Round 1Andrea Lee edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns1

Control0:39

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Andrea Lee edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 154

Sig Strikes

84 / 210

30%

Sig Str %

40%

47 / 154

Total Strikes

85 / 211

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 1

25%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:39

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Andrea Lee	43 / 116	44 / 117	0 / 0
1	Cynthia Calvillo	25 / 87	25 / 87	1 / 2
2	Andrea Lee	41 / 94	41 / 94	0 / 1
2	Cynthia Calvillo	22 / 67	22 / 67	0 / 1

Cynthia Calvillo

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights12

Andrea Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14