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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Curtis Millender won · U-DEC R3

Elo1372

Elo1377

Curtis MillendervsSiyar BahadurzadaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · Saturday, December 29, 2018Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Curtis Millender won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCurtis Millender: Elusive strikervsSiyar Bahadurzada: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Curtis Millender wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Curtis Millender wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Curtis Millender at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Curtis Millender has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Curtis Millender

Red Corner

Siyar Bahadurzada

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1372

Elo

1377

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Curtis MillenderL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Alves · Feb 18

vs Max Griffin · Jul 18

SUBvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Mar 19

vs Belal Muhammad · Apr 19

latest

Siyar Bahadurzada

oldest →

vs John Howard · Dec 13

SUBvs Brandon Thatch · Mar 16

KOvs Rob Wilkinson · Sep 17

KOvs Luan Chagas · Apr 18

vs Ismail Naurdiev · Sep 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Curtis MillenderMetricSiyar Bahadurzada

3.86

Strikes / min

2.91

2.95

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

61%

Strike defense

49%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

1.32

57%

Takedown defense

62%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.91Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap-0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Curtis MillenderSiyar Bahadurzada

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Curtis Millender(5 fights)Siyar Bahadurzada(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -4.5|Blue +4.5

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Curtis MillenderTargetSiyar Bahadurzada

By target zone

53% acc · 66%

Head

31% acc · 75%

40% acc · 9%

Body

29% acc · 10%

67% acc · 25%

Leg

67% acc · 15%

By position

53% acc · 94%

Distance

28% acc · 73%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

40% acc · 5%

Ground

75% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Curtis Millender rounds

even

Siyar Bahadurzada rounds

Round 1Curtis Millender edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:02

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:42Control

Round 3Curtis Millender edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:15

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:32Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

89 / 165

Sig Strikes

40 / 121

53.7%

Sig Str %

31%

91 / 167

Total Strikes

65 / 149

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 7

—

TD %

66.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:17

Ctrl Time

3:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Siyar Bahadurzada	6 / 32	6 / 32	0 / 0
1	Curtis Millender	31 / 66	31 / 66	0 / 0
2	Siyar Bahadurzada	15 / 42	27 / 56	1 / 1
2	Curtis Millender	23 / 45	23 / 45	0 / 0
3	Siyar Bahadurzada	19 / 47	32 / 61	2 / 6
3	Curtis Millender	35 / 54	37 / 56	0 / 0

Curtis Millender

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights5

Siyar Bahadurzada

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8