← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Curtis Millender won · U-DEC R3

Elo1372

Elo1470

Curtis MillendervsMax GriffinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · Saturday, July 7, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Curtis Millender won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCurtis Millender: Elusive strikervsMax Griffin: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Curtis Millender wins(63.6%)

Actual result: Curtis Millender wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Curtis Millender at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Max Griffin enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Curtis Millender

Red Corner

Max Griffin

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1372

Elo

1470

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Curtis MillenderL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Alves · Feb 18

vs Siyar Bahadurzada · Dec 18

SUBvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Mar 19

vs Belal Muhammad · Apr 19

latest

Max GriffinL3 streak

oldest →

vs Michael Morales · Jul 23

vs Jeremiah Wells · Feb 24

SUBvs Michael Chiesa · Dec 24

vs Chris Curtis · Jul 25

DECvs Victor Valenzuela · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Curtis MillenderMetricMax Griffin

3.86

Strikes / min

3.70

2.95

Strikes absorbed / min

3.69

61%

Strike defense

58%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

1.44

57%

Takedown defense

69%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.91evenly matched on net striking+0.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Curtis MillenderMax Griffin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Curtis Millender(5 fights)Max Griffin(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -98.3|Blue +98.3

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +6.0|Blue -6.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Curtis MillenderTargetMax Griffin

By target zone

32% acc · 61%

Head

37% acc · 64%

67% acc · 26%

Body

50% acc · 16%

63% acc · 13%

Leg

90% acc · 20%

By position

38% acc · 87%

Distance

40% acc · 77%

50% acc · 8%

Clinch

33% acc · 2%

100% acc · 5%

Ground

82% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Curtis Millender rounds

even

Max Griffin rounds

Round 1Max Griffin edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:19

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:17Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 94

Sig Strikes

44 / 99

43.7%

Sig Str %

44%

40 / 96

Total Strikes

61 / 117

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

4:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Max Griffin	14 / 31	29 / 47	1 / 1
1	Curtis Millender	9 / 15	9 / 15	0 / 0
2	Max Griffin	15 / 32	15 / 32	0 / 0
2	Curtis Millender	10 / 33	11 / 34	1 / 1
3	Max Griffin	15 / 36	17 / 38	0 / 1
3	Curtis Millender	19 / 46	20 / 47	0 / 0

Curtis Millender

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights5

Max Griffin

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19