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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Belal Muhammad won · U-DEC R3

Elo1372

Elo1479

Curtis MillendervsBelal MuhammadUFC Prediction Result

UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · Saturday, April 13, 2019Atlanta, Georgia, USA

Official fight result

Belal Muhammad won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCurtis Millender: Elusive strikervsBelal Muhammad: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Belal Muhammad wins(59.9%)

Actual result: Belal Muhammad wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Belal Muhammad at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Belal Muhammad has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Curtis Millender has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Curtis Millender

Red Corner

Belal Muhammad

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1372

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

5'11"

193.04 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Curtis Millender

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Alves · Feb 18

vs Max Griffin · Jul 18

vs Siyar Bahadurzada · Dec 18

SUBvs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos · Mar 19

latest

Belal MuhammadL3 streak

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · May 23

vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24

vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25

vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25

DECvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Curtis MillenderMetricBelal Muhammad

3.86

Strikes / min

4.43

2.95

Strikes absorbed / min

3.82

61%

Strike defense

55%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

2.14

57%

Takedown defense

90%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.91evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Curtis MillenderBelal Muhammad

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Curtis Millender(5 fights)Belal Muhammad(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -107.1|Blue +107.1

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Curtis MillenderTargetBelal Muhammad

By target zone

31% acc · 40%

Head

41% acc · 83%

58% acc · 15%

Body

57% acc · 9%

96% acc · 46%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

49% acc · 96%

Distance

42% acc · 70%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

50% acc · 30%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Curtis Millender rounds

even

Belal Muhammad rounds

Round 1Curtis Millender edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:21Control

Round 2Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:06Control

Round 3Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:02

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:50Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 96

Sig Strikes

47 / 107

49%

Sig Str %

43.3%

50 / 98

Total Strikes

126 / 217

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 6

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

8:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Belal Muhammad	19 / 41	33 / 55	0 / 2
1	Curtis Millender	24 / 47	25 / 48	0 / 0
2	Belal Muhammad	14 / 33	50 / 79	1 / 2
2	Curtis Millender	15 / 29	16 / 30	0 / 0
3	Belal Muhammad	14 / 33	43 / 83	1 / 2
3	Curtis Millender	9 / 20	9 / 20	0 / 0

Curtis Millender

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights5

Belal Muhammad

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights21