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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Curtis Blaydes won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1495
Curtis Blaydes
Elo1516

Curtis BlaydesvsTom AspinallUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Saturday, July 23, 2022London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Curtis Blaydes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:15

Style matchupCurtis Blaydes: WrestlervsTom Aspinall: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Tom Aspinall wins(75.8%)

Actual result: Curtis Blaydes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Aspinall at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Curtis Blaydes is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Tom Aspinall has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Tom Aspinall is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Curtis Blaydes has lost 83% of fights by KO.
  • Tom Aspinall has 65pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Curtis Blaydes
Red Corner
VS
Tom Aspinall
Blue Corner
+135
(43%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
1495
Elo
1516
35
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'5"
203.2 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Curtis Blaydes
oldest →
L
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23
W
KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24
L
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24
W
vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25
L
DECvs Josh Hokit · Apr 26
latest
Tom Aspinall
oldest →
W
SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 22
W
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Jul 23
W
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Nov 23
W
KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 24
L
vs Ciryl Gane · Oct 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Curtis BlaydesMetricTom Aspinall
4.18
Strikes / min
7.63
2.76
Strikes absorbed / min
3.62
53%
Strike defense
56%
5.12
TDs / 15 min
2.62
35%
Takedown defense
100%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.42Δ 2.59 — meaningful gap+4.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1606 vs 1566Strikes3.5 vs 8.1Takedowns5.7 vs 3.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.60Form0.7 vs 1.0
Curtis BlaydesTom Aspinall

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)Tom Aspinall(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -20.6|Blue +20.6
Recent Form
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Striker Score
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Curtis BlaydesTargetTom Aspinall

By target zone

2
25% acc · 50%
Head
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 25%
Body
1
100% acc · 33%
1
100% acc · 25%
Leg
2
100% acc · 67%

By position

4
40% acc · 100%
Distance
3
60% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Curtis Blaydes rounds
1
even
0
Tom Aspinall rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:01
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
4 / 10
Sig Strikes
3 / 5
40%
Sig Str %
60%
4 / 10
Total Strikes
3 / 5
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tom Aspinall3 / 53 / 50 / 00
1Curtis Blaydes4 / 104 / 100 / 00

Curtis Blaydes

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights19

Tom Aspinall

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights10