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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Curtis Blaydes won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1495

Elo1447

Curtis BlaydesvsShamil AbdurakhimovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · Saturday, September 7, 2019Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Curtis Blaydes won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:22

Model Prediction: Curtis Blaydes wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Curtis Blaydes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Curtis Blaydes at -550 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shamil Abdurakhimov enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Curtis Blaydes is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Shamil Abdurakhimov has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Curtis Blaydes has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Curtis Blaydes

Red Corner

Shamil Abdurakhimov

Blue Corner

-550

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+425

(19%)

1495

Elo

1447

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

203.2 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Curtis Blaydes

oldest →

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25

DECvs Josh Hokit · Apr 26

latest

Shamil AbdurakhimovL3 streak

oldest →

vs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 18

KOvs Marcin Tybura · Apr 19

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Sep 21

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Mar 22

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Jan 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Curtis BlaydesMetricShamil Abdurakhimov

4.18

Strikes / min

2.41

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

3.02

53%

Strike defense

55%

5.12

TDs / 15 min

1.01

35%

Takedown defense

45%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.42Δ 2.03 — meaningful gap-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Curtis BlaydesShamil Abdurakhimov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)Shamil Abdurakhimov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +48.7|Blue -48.7

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Curtis BlaydesTargetShamil Abdurakhimov

By target zone

56% acc · 92%

Head

43% acc · 100%

100% acc · 4%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 4%

Leg

By position

20% acc · 8%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

Clinch

70% acc · 92%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Curtis Blaydes rounds

even

Shamil Abdurakhimov rounds

Round 1Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns4

Control4:02

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:06

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 43

Sig Strikes

3 / 8

59%

Sig Str %

43%

46 / 74

Total Strikes

3 / 8

5 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:08

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Shamil Abdurakhimov	1 / 5	1 / 5	0 / 0
1	Curtis Blaydes	12 / 24	25 / 43	4 / 4
2	Shamil Abdurakhimov	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 0
2	Curtis Blaydes	13 / 19	21 / 31	1 / 1

Curtis Blaydes

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Shamil Abdurakhimov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights11