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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Curtis Blaydes won · S-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1541

Curtis BlaydesvsRizvan KunievUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Saturday, June 21, 2025Baku, Azerbaijan

Official fight result

Curtis Blaydes won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCurtis Blaydes: WrestlervsRizvan Kuniev: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Curtis Blaydes wins(78.2%)

Actual result: Curtis Blaydes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Curtis Blaydes at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rizvan Kuniev is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Curtis Blaydes has lost 83% of fights by KO.
Rizvan Kuniev has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Curtis Blaydes has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Curtis Blaydes

Red Corner

Rizvan Kuniev

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+198

(34%)

1495

Elo

1541

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

203.2 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Curtis BlaydesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 22

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24

DECvs Josh Hokit · Apr 26

latest

Rizvan KunievW2 streak

oldest →

vs Jailton Almeida · Feb 26

KOvs Tyrell Fortune · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Curtis BlaydesMetricRizvan Kuniev

4.18

Strikes / min

3.94

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

2.33

53%

Strike defense

48%

5.12

TDs / 15 min

0.98

35%

Takedown defense

93%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.42evenly matched on net striking+1.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Curtis BlaydesRizvan Kuniev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)Rizvan Kuniev(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -45.3|Blue +45.3

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -48.8|Blue +48.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Curtis BlaydesTargetRizvan Kuniev

By target zone

48% acc · 61%

Head

38% acc · 84%

75% acc · 5%

Body

80% acc · 9%

95% acc · 34%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

54% acc · 79%

Distance

38% acc · 78%

92% acc · 21%

Clinch

67% acc · 22%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Curtis Blaydes rounds

even

Rizvan Kuniev rounds

Round 1Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control3:01

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Rizvan Kuniev edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:08

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control2:12

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 95

Sig Strikes

45 / 108

59%

Sig Str %

40%

101 / 143

Total Strikes

58 / 125

2 / 15

TDs

0 / 0

7.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:21

Ctrl Time

0:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rizvan Kuniev	8 / 22	13 / 27	0 / 0
1	Curtis Blaydes	12 / 23	21 / 33	2 / 9
2	Rizvan Kuniev	24 / 52	26 / 54	0 / 0
2	Curtis Blaydes	16 / 39	19 / 42	0 / 4
3	Rizvan Kuniev	13 / 34	19 / 44	0 / 0
3	Curtis Blaydes	28 / 33	61 / 68	0 / 2

Curtis Blaydes

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Rizvan Kuniev

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3