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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Curtis Blaydes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1492

Curtis BlaydesvsJustin WillisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · Saturday, March 23, 2019Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Curtis Blaydes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Justin Willis wins(58.4%)

Actual result: Curtis Blaydes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Willis at +235 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Justin Willis enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Justin Willis (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Curtis Blaydes

Red Corner

Justin Willis

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1495

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'4"

Height

6'1"

203.2 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Curtis Blaydes

oldest →

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25

DECvs Josh Hokit · Apr 26

latest

Justin WillisW4 streak

oldest →

vs James Mulheron · Jul 17

KOvs Allen Crowder · Dec 17

vs Chase Sherman · Apr 18

vs Mark Hunt · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Curtis BlaydesMetricJustin Willis

4.18

Strikes / min

3.37

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

53%

Strike defense

57%

5.12

TDs / 15 min

0.96

35%

Takedown defense

36%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.42evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Curtis BlaydesJustin Willis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)Justin Willis(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.9|Blue -3.9

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Curtis BlaydesTargetJustin Willis

By target zone

53% acc · 45%

Head

22% acc · 100%

33% acc · 5%

Body

100% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

73% acc · 36%

Distance

22% acc · 100%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

65% acc · 59%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Curtis Blaydes rounds

even

Justin Willis rounds

Round 1Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns4

Control4:25

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control4:39

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control2:40

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 33

Sig Strikes

2 / 9

66.3%

Sig Str %

22%

72 / 90

Total Strikes

9 / 16

7 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

59.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

11:44

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Justin Willis	0 / 0	3 / 3	0 / 0
1	Curtis Blaydes	10 / 14	26 / 30	4 / 5
2	Justin Willis	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0
2	Curtis Blaydes	8 / 9	34 / 36	2 / 3
3	Justin Willis	2 / 9	5 / 12	0 / 0
3	Curtis Blaydes	4 / 10	12 / 24	1 / 3

Curtis Blaydes

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Justin Willis

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights5