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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Curtis Blaydes won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1495

Elo1393

Curtis BlaydesvsJunior Dos SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, January 25, 2020Raleigh, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Curtis Blaydes won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:06

Style matchupCurtis Blaydes: WrestlervsJunior Dos Santos: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Curtis Blaydes wins(64.1%)

Actual result: Curtis Blaydes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Curtis Blaydes at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Junior Dos Santos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Curtis Blaydes is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Junior Dos Santos has lost 88% of fights by KO.
Junior Dos Santos is a KO finisher (55% of wins). Curtis Blaydes has lost 83% of fights by KO.
Junior Dos Santos has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Curtis Blaydes

Red Corner

Junior Dos Santos

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+240

(29%)

1495

Elo

1393

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

203.2 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Curtis Blaydes

oldest →

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25

DECvs Josh Hokit · Apr 26

latest

Junior Dos SantosL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Dec 18

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Mar 19

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Jun 19

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Curtis BlaydesMetricJunior Dos Santos

4.18

Strikes / min

4.49

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

53%

Strike defense

56%

5.12

TDs / 15 min

0.30

35%

Takedown defense

81%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.42evenly matched on net striking+1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Curtis BlaydesJunior Dos Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +102.8|Blue -102.8

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Curtis BlaydesTargetJunior Dos Santos

By target zone

39% acc · 71%

Head

13% acc · 43%

100% acc · 11%

Body

50% acc · 29%

83% acc · 18%

Leg

67% acc · 29%

By position

37% acc · 68%

Distance

23% acc · 100%

100% acc · 32%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Curtis Blaydes rounds

even

Junior Dos Santos rounds

Round 1Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:17

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:02

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 60

Sig Strikes

7 / 30

49.5%

Sig Str %

24.5%

29 / 62

Total Strikes

7 / 30

0 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Junior Dos Santos	5 / 23	5 / 23	0 / 0
1	Curtis Blaydes	14 / 38	15 / 40	0 / 4
2	Junior Dos Santos	2 / 7	2 / 7	0 / 0
2	Curtis Blaydes	14 / 22	14 / 22	0 / 2

Curtis Blaydes

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Junior Dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19