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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Curtis Blaydes won · U-DEC R3

Elo1495

Elo1502

Curtis BlaydesvsJairzinho RozenstruikUFC Prediction Result

UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Saturday, September 25, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Curtis Blaydes won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCurtis Blaydes: WrestlervsJairzinho Rozenstruik: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Curtis Blaydes wins(76.1%)

Actual result: Curtis Blaydes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Curtis Blaydes at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik is a KO finisher (89% of wins). Curtis Blaydes has lost 83% of fights by KO.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Curtis Blaydes

Red Corner

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1495

Elo

1502

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

203.2 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Curtis Blaydes

oldest →

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25

DECvs Josh Hokit · Apr 26

latest

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

oldest →

KOvs Chris Daukaus · Dec 22

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · May 23

KOvs Shamil Gaziev · Mar 24

vs Tai Tuivasa · Aug 24

vs Sergei Pavlovich · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Curtis BlaydesMetricJairzinho Rozenstruik

4.18

Strikes / min

3.48

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

2.63

53%

Strike defense

52%

5.12

TDs / 15 min

0.00

35%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.42evenly matched on net striking+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Curtis BlaydesJairzinho Rozenstruik

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)Jairzinho Rozenstruik(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Curtis BlaydesTargetJairzinho Rozenstruik

By target zone

24% acc · 56%

Head

26% acc · 94%

75% acc · 19%

Body

50% acc · 6%

67% acc · 25%

Leg

0% acc

By position

28% acc · 75%

Distance

25% acc · 89%

Clinch

67% acc · 11%

80% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Curtis Blaydes rounds

even

Jairzinho Rozenstruik rounds

Round 1Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:54

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:20

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control3:05

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 96

Sig Strikes

18 / 68

31.7%

Sig Str %

25%

113 / 190

Total Strikes

46 / 99

3 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

61%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:19

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	6 / 28	13 / 35	0 / 0
1	Curtis Blaydes	19 / 42	27 / 56	1 / 2
2	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	10 / 31	23 / 46	0 / 0
2	Curtis Blaydes	8 / 37	43 / 73	1 / 3
3	Jairzinho Rozenstruik	2 / 9	10 / 18	0 / 0
3	Curtis Blaydes	5 / 17	43 / 61	1 / 1

Curtis Blaydes

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Jairzinho Rozenstruik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15