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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Curtis Blaydes won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1495

Elo1508

Curtis BlaydesvsJailton AlmeidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Saturday, March 9, 2024Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Curtis Blaydes won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:36

Style matchupCurtis Blaydes: WrestlervsJailton Almeida: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jailton Almeida wins(55.4%)

Actual result: Curtis Blaydes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jailton Almeida at -135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Curtis Blaydes has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jailton Almeida has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Curtis Blaydes

Red Corner

Jailton Almeida

Blue Corner

+114

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1495

Elo

1508

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

203.2 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Curtis Blaydes

oldest →

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 22

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25

DECvs Josh Hokit · Apr 26

latest

Jailton AlmeidaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Derrick Lewis · Nov 23

SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Jun 24

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Jan 25

vs Alexander Volkov · Oct 25

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Curtis BlaydesMetricJailton Almeida

4.18

Strikes / min

2.23

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

1.30

53%

Strike defense

43%

5.12

TDs / 15 min

5.64

35%

Takedown defense

60%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.42evenly matched on net striking+0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Curtis BlaydesJailton Almeida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)Jailton Almeida(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -12.7|Blue +12.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Layoff

Red +196.0|Blue -196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Curtis BlaydesTargetJailton Almeida

By target zone

64% acc · 100%

Head

33% acc · 100%

Body

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

33% acc · 100%

Clinch

80% acc · 100%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Curtis Blaydes rounds

even

Jailton Almeida rounds

Round 1Jailton Almeida edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:02

0Sig. strikes

9Takedowns

4:39Control

Round 2Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:07

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 25

Sig Strikes

1 / 3

34.5%

Sig Str %

33%

19 / 28

Total Strikes

9 / 11

0 / 0

TDs

9 / 13

—

TD %

37.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

4:39

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jailton Almeida	0 / 0	8 / 8	9 / 12
1	Curtis Blaydes	0 / 2	3 / 5	0 / 0
2	Jailton Almeida	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 1
2	Curtis Blaydes	16 / 23	16 / 23	0 / 0

Curtis Blaydes

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Jailton Almeida

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11