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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Francis Ngannou won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1495
Curtis Blaydes
Elo1496
Francis Ngannou

Curtis BlaydesvsFrancis NgannouUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · Saturday, November 24, 2018Beijing, China

Official fight result

Francis Ngannou won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:45

Model Prediction: Curtis Blaydes wins(76.5%)

Actual result: Francis Ngannou wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Curtis Blaydes at -240 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Francis Ngannou enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Francis Ngannou is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Curtis Blaydes has lost 83% of fights by KO.
  • Curtis Blaydes has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Francis Ngannou has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Curtis Blaydes
Red Corner
VS
Francis Ngannou
Blue Corner
-240
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+200
(33%)
1495
Elo
1496
35
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'4"
203.2 cm
Reach
210.82 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Curtis Blaydes
oldest →
L
KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23
W
KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24
L
KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24
W
vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25
L
DECvs Josh Hokit · Apr 26
latest
Francis NgannouW5 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Cain Velasquez · Feb 19
W
KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Jun 19
W
KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · May 20
W
KOvs Stipe Miocic · Mar 21
W
vs Ciryl Gane · Jan 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Curtis BlaydesMetricFrancis Ngannou
4.18
Strikes / min
2.33
2.76
Strikes absorbed / min
2.16
53%
Strike defense
41%
5.12
TDs / 15 min
0.76
35%
Takedown defense
71%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.42Δ 1.25 — meaningful gap+0.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1556 vs 1552Strikes43.6 vs 14.5Takedowns4.7 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.25Form1.0 vs -0.2
Curtis BlaydesFrancis Ngannou

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)Francis Ngannou(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Recent Form
Red +1.2|Blue -1.2
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Layoff
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Curtis BlaydesTargetFrancis Ngannou

By target zone

1
14% acc · 100%
Head
11
73% acc · 85%
0
Body
1
100% acc · 8%
0
0% acc
Leg
1
100% acc · 8%

By position

1
13% acc · 100%
Distance
3
50% acc · 23%
0
Clinch
5
100% acc · 38%
0
Ground
5
83% acc · 38%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Curtis Blaydes rounds
0
even
1
Francis Ngannou rounds
Round 1Francis Ngannou edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
1 / 8
Sig Strikes
13 / 17
12%
Sig Str %
76%
1 / 8
Total Strikes
13 / 17
0 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Francis Ngannou13 / 1713 / 170 / 00
1Curtis Blaydes1 / 81 / 80 / 20

Curtis Blaydes

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights19

Francis Ngannou

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach83.0"
Fights14