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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Derrick Lewis won · KO/TKO

Elo1495

Elo1481

Curtis BlaydesvsDerrick LewisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Saturday, February 20, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Derrick Lewis won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Curtis Blaydes wins(79.1%)

Actual result: Derrick Lewis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Curtis Blaydes at -400 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Curtis Blaydes is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Derrick Lewis is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Curtis Blaydes has lost 83% of fights by KO.
Curtis Blaydes has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Derrick Lewis has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Curtis Blaydes

Red Corner

Derrick Lewis

Blue Corner

-400

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+300

(25%)

1495

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

203.2 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Curtis Blaydes

oldest →

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25

DECvs Josh Hokit · Apr 26

latest

Derrick LewisL2 streak

oldest →

vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23

KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24

KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25

KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26

KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Curtis BlaydesMetricDerrick Lewis

4.18

Strikes / min

2.46

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

2.57

53%

Strike defense

39%

5.12

TDs / 15 min

0.55

35%

Takedown defense

52%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.42Δ 1.53 — meaningful gap-0.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Curtis BlaydesDerrick Lewis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)Derrick Lewis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Curtis BlaydesTargetDerrick Lewis

By target zone

43% acc · 64%

Head

29% acc · 86%

100% acc · 11%

Body

50% acc · 14%

100% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

53% acc · 89%

Distance

20% acc · 57%

60% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

Ground

100% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Curtis Blaydes rounds

even

Derrick Lewis rounds

Round 1Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:05

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Derrick Lewis edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:10

Knockdowns0

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 52

Sig Strikes

7 / 23

42%

Sig Str %

45.5%

28 / 52

Total Strikes

7 / 23

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Derrick Lewis	5 / 20	5 / 20	0 / 0
1	Curtis Blaydes	26 / 44	26 / 44	0 / 1
2	Derrick Lewis	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 0
2	Curtis Blaydes	2 / 8	2 / 8	0 / 2

Curtis Blaydes

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Derrick Lewis

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights31