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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Curtis Blaydes won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1495

Elo1471

Curtis BlaydesvsChris DaukausUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Saturday, March 26, 2022Columbus, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Curtis Blaydes won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:17

Style matchupCurtis Blaydes: WrestlervsChris Daukaus: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Curtis Blaydes wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Curtis Blaydes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Curtis Blaydes at -600 American odds

+$17 profit

$117 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chris Daukaus enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Curtis Blaydes is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Chris Daukaus has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Chris Daukaus is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Curtis Blaydes has lost 83% of fights by KO.
Chris Daukaus has 65pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Curtis Blaydes has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Curtis Blaydes

Red Corner

Chris Daukaus

Blue Corner

-600

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+435

(19%)

1495

Elo

1471

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

203.2 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Curtis Blaydes

oldest →

KOvs Sergei Pavlovich · Apr 23

KOvs Jailton Almeida · Mar 24

KOvs Tom Aspinall · Jul 24

vs Rizvan Kuniev · Jun 25

DECvs Josh Hokit · Apr 26

latest

Chris DaukausL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Feb 21

KOvs Shamil Abdurakhimov · Sep 21

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Dec 21

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 22

KOvs Khalil Rountree Jr. · Aug 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Curtis BlaydesMetricChris Daukaus

4.18

Strikes / min

6.05

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

4.64

53%

Strike defense

55%

5.12

TDs / 15 min

0.00

35%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.42evenly matched on net striking+1.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Curtis BlaydesChris Daukaus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Curtis Blaydes(10 fights)Chris Daukaus(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.6|Blue -24.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Curtis BlaydesTargetChris Daukaus

By target zone

42% acc · 77%

Head

33% acc · 92%

50% acc · 3%

Body

50% acc · 8%

100% acc · 20%

Leg

By position

44% acc · 80%

Distance

34% acc · 100%

Clinch

67% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Curtis Blaydes rounds

even

Chris Daukaus rounds

Round 1Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Curtis Blaydes edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 63

Sig Strikes

13 / 38

56.5%

Sig Str %

66%

30 / 63

Total Strikes

13 / 38

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chris Daukaus	12 / 37	12 / 37	0 / 0
1	Curtis Blaydes	23 / 53	23 / 53	0 / 0
2	Chris Daukaus	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0
2	Curtis Blaydes	7 / 10	7 / 10	0 / 0

Curtis Blaydes

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19

Chris Daukaus

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8