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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Cub Swanson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1516

Elo1358

Cub SwansonvsTatsuya KawajiriUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Caceres · Saturday, August 6, 2016Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Cub Swanson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCub Swanson: Pressure fightervsTatsuya Kawajiri: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Cub Swanson wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Cub Swanson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cub Swanson at -330 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Cub Swanson

Red Corner

Tatsuya Kawajiri

Blue Corner

-330

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1516

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cub SwansonW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23

vs Andre Fili · Jun 24

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26

latest

Tatsuya Kawajiri

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Soriano · Jan 14

vs Clay Guida · Apr 14

vs Dennis Siver · Jun 15

vs Jason Knight · Dec 15

vs Dennis Bermudez · Feb 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cub SwansonMetricTatsuya Kawajiri

4.84

Strikes / min

2.04

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

2.01

59%

Strike defense

50%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

3.63

63%

Takedown defense

63%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cub SwansonTatsuya Kawajiri

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cub Swanson(10 fights)Tatsuya Kawajiri(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +158.3|Blue -158.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -55.0|Blue +55.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cub SwansonTargetTatsuya Kawajiri

By target zone

55% acc · 76%

Head

15% acc · 52%

91% acc · 15%

Body

25% acc · 9%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

82% acc · 39%

By position

49% acc · 57%

Distance

22% acc · 83%

89% acc · 12%

Clinch

67% acc · 9%

91% acc · 31%

Ground

15% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cub Swanson rounds

even

Tatsuya Kawajiri rounds

Round 1Tatsuya Kawajiri edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:29Control

Round 2Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:42

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Round 3Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control1:18

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:24Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 109

Sig Strikes

23 / 101

60%

Sig Str %

21.7%

91 / 133

Total Strikes

51 / 132

1 / 1

TDs

3 / 12

100%

TD %

24.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:00

Ctrl Time

5:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tatsuya Kawajiri	6 / 27	25 / 48	1 / 3	0
1	Cub Swanson	10 / 19	27 / 36	0 / 0	0
2	Tatsuya Kawajiri	13 / 52	15 / 55	0 / 4	0
2	Cub Swanson	27 / 49	28 / 50	0 / 0	1
3	Tatsuya Kawajiri	4 / 22	11 / 29	2 / 5	0
3	Cub Swanson	30 / 41	36 / 47	1 / 1	0

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights25

Tatsuya Kawajiri

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6