← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Shane Burgos won · S-DEC R3

Elo1516

Elo1496

Cub SwansonvsShane BurgosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · Saturday, May 4, 2019Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Shane Burgos won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCub Swanson: Pressure fightervsShane Burgos: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Shane Burgos wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Shane Burgos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shane Burgos at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Cub Swanson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Shane Burgos has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Shane Burgos has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Shane Burgos has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cub Swanson

Red Corner

Shane Burgos

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1516

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cub SwansonW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23

vs Andre Fili · Jun 24

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26

latest

Shane BurgosW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Makwan Amirkhani · Nov 19

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 20

KOvs Edson Barboza · May 21

vs Billy Quarantillo · Nov 21

vs Charles Jourdain · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cub SwansonMetricShane Burgos

4.84

Strikes / min

7.40

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

6.78

59%

Strike defense

56%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

0.43

63%

Takedown defense

91%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cub SwansonShane Burgos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cub Swanson(10 fights)Shane Burgos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +19.5|Blue -19.5

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cub SwansonTargetShane Burgos

By target zone

40% acc · 51%

Head

39% acc · 61%

54% acc · 11%

Body

72% acc · 13%

78% acc · 38%

Leg

97% acc · 25%

By position

113

47% acc · 88%

Distance

128

49% acc · 96%

92% acc · 9%

Clinch

75% acc · 4%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cub Swanson rounds

even

Shane Burgos rounds

Round 1Shane Burgos edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Shane Burgos edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:00

48Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes49

Takedowns0

Control1:37

45Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

129 / 256

Sig Strikes

134 / 268

50%

Sig Str %

49.3%

132 / 260

Total Strikes

147 / 282

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:37

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Shane Burgos	41 / 81	41 / 81	0 / 0
1	Cub Swanson	37 / 73	37 / 73	0 / 0
2	Shane Burgos	48 / 95	48 / 95	0 / 0
2	Cub Swanson	43 / 96	43 / 96	0 / 0
3	Shane Burgos	45 / 92	58 / 106	0 / 0
3	Cub Swanson	49 / 87	52 / 91	0 / 2

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights25

Shane Burgos

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11