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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Ricardo Lamas won · SUB R2
Elo1516
Cub Swanson
Elo1493
Ricardo Lamas

Cub SwansonvsRicardo LamasUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Santos · Saturday, November 12, 2011Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Ricardo Lamas won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:16

Model Prediction: Ricardo Lamas wins(73.3%)

Actual result: Ricardo Lamas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ricardo Lamas at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Cub Swanson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Ricardo Lamas has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Cub Swanson has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Cub Swanson
Red Corner
VS
Ricardo Lamas
Blue Corner
+165
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-175
(64%)
1516
Elo
1493
42
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cub SwansonW2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22
W
vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23
L
vs Andre Fili · Jun 24
W
KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24
W
KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26
latest
Ricardo Lamas
oldest →
L
KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 17
L
vs Mirsad Bektic · Jun 18
W
KOvs Darren Elkins · Nov 18
L
KOvs Calvin Kattar · Jun 19
W
vs Bill Algeo · Aug 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cub SwansonMetricRicardo Lamas
4.84
Strikes / min
3.13
3.99
Strikes absorbed / min
2.87
59%
Strike defense
57%
1.00
TDs / 15 min
1.84
63%
Takedown defense
46%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1516Strikes— vs 16.0Takedowns— vs 1.0Sub Atts— vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 1.0
Cub SwansonRicardo Lamas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Cub Swanson(10 fights)Ricardo Lamas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +23.2|Blue -23.2
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Grappler Score
Red +50.0|Blue -50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cub SwansonTargetRicardo Lamas

By target zone

10
34% acc · 59%
Head
2
10% acc · 22%
2
50% acc · 12%
Body
6
100% acc · 67%
5
50% acc · 29%
Leg
1
25% acc · 11%

By position

15
38% acc · 88%
Distance
3
15% acc · 33%
0
0% acc
Clinch
0
2
100% acc · 12%
Ground
6
60% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Cub Swanson rounds
0
even
1
Ricardo Lamas rounds
Round 1Cub Swanson edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control0:42
6Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:17Control
Round 2Ricardo Lamas edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:38Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
17 / 43
Sig Strikes
9 / 30
38%
Sig Str %
30.5%
20 / 47
Total Strikes
17 / 38
1 / 1
TDs
2 / 4
100%
TD %
66.5%
1
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:42
Ctrl Time
2:55

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ricardo Lamas6 / 2110 / 251 / 30
1Cub Swanson13 / 3216 / 351 / 11
2Ricardo Lamas3 / 97 / 131 / 11
2Cub Swanson4 / 114 / 120 / 00

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights25

Ricardo Lamas

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights17