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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Renato Moicano won · SUB R1

Elo1516

Elo1523

Cub SwansonvsRenato MoicanoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrandt 2 · Saturday, August 4, 2018Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Renato Moicano won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:15

Style matchupCub Swanson: Pressure fightervsRenato Moicano: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Renato Moicano wins(61.4%)

Actual result: Renato Moicano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renato Moicano at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renato Moicano threatens submissions; Cub Swanson has lost 50% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Cub Swanson

Red Corner

Renato Moicano

Blue Corner

+250

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-300

(75%)

1516

Elo

1523

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cub SwansonW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23

vs Andre Fili · Jun 24

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26

latest

Renato Moicano

oldest →

KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 25

vs Beneil Dariush · Jun 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cub SwansonMetricRenato Moicano

4.84

Strikes / min

4.10

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.55

59%

Strike defense

59%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

1.68

63%

Takedown defense

64%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cub SwansonRenato Moicano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cub Swanson(10 fights)Renato Moicano(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.7|Blue +6.7

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cub SwansonTargetRenato Moicano

By target zone

26% acc · 25%

Head

33% acc · 82%

60% acc · 15%

Body

67% acc · 12%

86% acc · 60%

Leg

50% acc · 6%

By position

53% acc · 100%

Distance

24% acc · 47%

Clinch

100% acc · 12%

Ground

58% acc · 41%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cub Swanson rounds

even

Renato Moicano rounds

Round 1Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:21Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 38

Sig Strikes

17 / 47

52%

Sig Str %

36%

20 / 38

Total Strikes

23 / 53

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Renato Moicano	17 / 47	23 / 53	1 / 2	1
1	Cub Swanson	20 / 38	20 / 38	0 / 0	0

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights25

Renato Moicano

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20