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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Max Holloway won · SUB R3

Elo1516

Elo1517

Cub SwansonvsMax HollowayUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · Saturday, April 18, 2015Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Max Holloway won

SUB · Round 3 · 3:58

Style matchupCub Swanson: Pressure fightervsMax Holloway: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Max Holloway wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Max Holloway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Max Holloway at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Max Holloway has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Cub Swanson

Red Corner

Max Holloway

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1516

Elo

1517

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cub SwansonW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23

vs Andre Fili · Jun 24

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26

latest

Max Holloway

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Apr 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Oct 24

vs Dustin Poirier · Jul 25

vs Charles Oliveira · Mar 26

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cub SwansonMetricMax Holloway

4.84

Strikes / min

6.91

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

4.61

59%

Strike defense

58%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

0.23

63%

Takedown defense

81%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap+2.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cub SwansonMax Holloway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cub Swanson(10 fights)Max Holloway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cub SwansonTargetMax Holloway

By target zone

30% acc · 52%

Head

31% acc · 62%

67% acc · 18%

Body

86% acc · 29%

74% acc · 30%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

41% acc · 96%

Distance

39% acc · 89%

100% acc · 4%

Clinch

80% acc · 5%

0% acc

Ground

63% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cub Swanson rounds

even

Max Holloway rounds

Round 1Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Max Holloway edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:07

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 136

Sig Strikes

82 / 198

43.3%

Sig Str %

42%

58 / 138

Total Strikes

86 / 202

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

1:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Max Holloway	27 / 75	27 / 75	0 / 0	0
1	Cub Swanson	24 / 49	24 / 49	0 / 0	0
2	Max Holloway	34 / 80	35 / 81	0 / 0	0
2	Cub Swanson	21 / 65	21 / 65	0 / 1	0
3	Max Holloway	21 / 43	24 / 46	0 / 0	3
3	Cub Swanson	11 / 22	13 / 24	0 / 2	0

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights25

Max Holloway

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights33