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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Cub Swanson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1516

Elo1484

Cub SwansonvsKron GracieUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · Saturday, October 12, 2019Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Cub Swanson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kron Gracie wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Cub Swanson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kron Gracie at -175 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kron Gracie threatens submissions; Cub Swanson has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Cub Swanson has 63pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kron Gracie (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cub Swanson

Red Corner

Kron Gracie

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1516

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cub SwansonW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23

vs Andre Fili · Jun 24

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26

latest

Kron GracieL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alex Caceres · Feb 19

vs Charles Jourdain · May 23

KOvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cub SwansonMetricKron Gracie

4.84

Strikes / min

2.95

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

5.73

59%

Strike defense

51%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

0.35

63%

Takedown defense

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85Δ 3.63 — meaningful gap-2.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cub SwansonKron Gracie

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cub Swanson(10 fights)Kron Gracie(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +31.8|Blue -31.8

Recent Form

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Striker Score

Red +2.7|Blue -2.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -76.0|Blue +76.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cub SwansonTargetKron Gracie

By target zone

39% acc · 62%

Head

41% acc · 85%

69% acc · 30%

Body

50% acc · 5%

73% acc · 8%

Leg

60% acc · 10%

By position

110

44% acc · 81%

Distance

41% acc · 86%

71% acc · 18%

Clinch

69% acc · 13%

50% acc · 1%

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cub Swanson rounds

even

Kron Gracie rounds

Round 1Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes53

Takedowns0

Control0:05

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes59

Takedowns0

Control0:31

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

135 / 288

Sig Strikes

86 / 200

45.3%

Sig Str %

42%

143 / 296

Total Strikes

109 / 225

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:36

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kron Gracie	19 / 58	19 / 58	0 / 0
1	Cub Swanson	23 / 60	23 / 60	0 / 0
2	Kron Gracie	36 / 78	46 / 88	0 / 0
2	Cub Swanson	53 / 99	55 / 101	0 / 0
3	Kron Gracie	31 / 64	44 / 79	0 / 2
3	Cub Swanson	59 / 129	65 / 135	0 / 0

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights25

Kron Gracie

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4