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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jonathan Martinez won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1516

Elo1504

Cub SwansonvsJonathan MartinezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Saturday, October 15, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jonathan Martinez won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:19

Style matchupCub Swanson: Pressure fightervsJonathan Martinez: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Jonathan Martinez wins(58.9%)

Actual result: Jonathan Martinez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonathan Martinez at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Martinez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cub Swanson

Red Corner

Jonathan Martinez

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-225

(69%)

1516

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cub SwansonW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Darren Elkins · Dec 21

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23

vs Andre Fili · Jun 24

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26

latest

Jonathan MartinezL2 streak

oldest →

vs Vince Morales · May 22

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Mar 23

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Oct 23

vs Jose Aldo · May 24

vs Marcus McGhee · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cub SwansonMetricJonathan Martinez

4.84

Strikes / min

4.44

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

4.09

59%

Strike defense

56%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

0.38

63%

Takedown defense

68%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cub SwansonJonathan Martinez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cub Swanson(10 fights)Jonathan Martinez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +11.8|Blue -11.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +154.0|Blue -154.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cub SwansonTargetJonathan Martinez

By target zone

29% acc · 20%

Head

52% acc · 65%

90% acc · 18%

Body

83% acc · 24%

94% acc · 63%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

66% acc · 94%

Distance

58% acc · 60%

60% acc · 6%

Clinch

86% acc · 19%

0% acc

Ground

54% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cub Swanson rounds

even

Jonathan Martinez rounds

Round 1Jonathan Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control0:20

Knockdowns0

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:16Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Jonathan Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:14Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 79

Sig Strikes

62 / 102

65%

Sig Str %

61%

60 / 88

Total Strikes

66 / 106

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

3:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jonathan Martinez	33 / 59	35 / 61	0 / 1
1	Cub Swanson	31 / 50	38 / 57	1 / 1
2	Jonathan Martinez	29 / 43	31 / 45	0 / 0
2	Cub Swanson	20 / 29	22 / 31	0 / 0

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights25

Jonathan Martinez

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15