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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Cub Swanson won · U-DEC R5

Elo1516

Elo1473

Cub SwansonvsJeremy StephensUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Marquardt · Saturday, June 28, 2014San Antonio, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Cub Swanson won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupCub Swanson: Pressure fightervsJeremy Stephens: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Cub Swanson wins(78.1%)

Actual result: Cub Swanson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cub Swanson at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Cub Swanson

Red Corner

Jeremy Stephens

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1516

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cub SwansonW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23

vs Andre Fili · Jun 24

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26

latest

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cub SwansonMetricJeremy Stephens

4.84

Strikes / min

3.13

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

59%

Strike defense

57%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

1.10

63%

Takedown defense

61%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cub SwansonJeremy Stephens

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cub Swanson(10 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +43.3|Blue -43.3

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +203.0|Blue -203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cub SwansonTargetJeremy Stephens

By target zone

33% acc · 66%

Head

22% acc · 63%

53% acc · 10%

Body

62% acc · 12%

68% acc · 24%

Leg

64% acc · 25%

By position

39% acc · 95%

Distance

29% acc · 97%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

29% acc · 3%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cub Swanson rounds

even

Jeremy Stephens rounds

Round 1Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 2Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:28Control

Round 3Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:02

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:13Control

Round 4Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:12

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:59Control

Round 5Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

87 / 219

Sig Strikes

65 / 228

39.6%

Sig Str %

28.4%

103 / 236

Total Strikes

76 / 239

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 8

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

3:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jeremy Stephens	7 / 34	10 / 37	1 / 1
1	Cub Swanson	16 / 39	17 / 40	0 / 0
2	Jeremy Stephens	18 / 45	21 / 48	1 / 1
2	Cub Swanson	8 / 31	9 / 33	0 / 0
3	Jeremy Stephens	9 / 30	12 / 33	0 / 3
3	Cub Swanson	21 / 45	28 / 52	0 / 0
4	Cub Swanson	15 / 30	22 / 37	0 / 0
4	Jeremy Stephens	11 / 38	13 / 40	0 / 3
5	Jeremy Stephens	20 / 81	20 / 81	0 / 0
5	Cub Swanson	27 / 74	27 / 74	0 / 0

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights25

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27