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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Cub Swanson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1516

Elo1473

Cub SwansonvsHakeem DawoduUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · Saturday, August 12, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cub Swanson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCub Swanson: Pressure fightervsHakeem Dawodu: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Hakeem Dawodu wins(62.2%)

Actual result: Cub Swanson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hakeem Dawodu at -305 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Cub Swanson

Red Corner

Hakeem Dawodu

Blue Corner

+245

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-305

(75%)

1516

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cub SwansonW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Darren Elkins · Dec 21

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22

vs Andre Fili · Jun 24

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26

latest

Hakeem Dawodu

oldest →

vs Julio Arce · Nov 19

vs Zubaira Tukhugov · Sep 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jun 21

vs Michael Trizano · Feb 22

vs Julian Erosa · Sep 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cub SwansonMetricHakeem Dawodu

4.84

Strikes / min

5.45

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.37

59%

Strike defense

56%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

0.00

63%

Takedown defense

65%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap+2.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cub SwansonHakeem Dawodu

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cub Swanson(10 fights)Hakeem Dawodu(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +42.7|Blue -42.7

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cub SwansonTargetHakeem Dawodu

By target zone

37% acc · 53%

Head

39% acc · 43%

87% acc · 35%

Body

78% acc · 31%

69% acc · 12%

Leg

71% acc · 26%

By position

44% acc · 77%

Distance

50% acc · 83%

86% acc · 23%

Clinch

89% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cub Swanson rounds

even

Hakeem Dawodu rounds

Round 1Hakeem Dawodu edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Hakeem Dawodu edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:04

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:20Control

Round 3Hakeem Dawodu edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control1:21

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:50Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

77 / 156

Sig Strikes

95 / 176

49.7%

Sig Str %

53%

107 / 195

Total Strikes

129 / 224

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:25

Ctrl Time

3:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Hakeem Dawodu	29 / 56	29 / 56	0 / 0
1	Cub Swanson	23 / 42	23 / 42	0 / 0
2	Hakeem Dawodu	29 / 55	48 / 86	0 / 0
2	Cub Swanson	28 / 51	52 / 79	0 / 0
3	Hakeem Dawodu	37 / 65	52 / 82	0 / 0
3	Cub Swanson	26 / 63	32 / 74	1 / 2

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights25

Hakeem Dawodu

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10