← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Cub Swanson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1516

Elo1362

Cub SwansonvsHacran DiasUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · Saturday, April 16, 2016Tampa, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Cub Swanson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCub Swanson: Pressure fightervsHacran Dias: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Cub Swanson wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Cub Swanson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cub Swanson at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Cub Swanson

Red Corner

Hacran Dias

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1516

Elo

1362

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cub SwansonW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23

vs Andre Fili · Jun 24

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26

latest

Hacran DiasL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ricardo Lamas · Jun 14

vs Darren Elkins · Dec 14

vs Levan Makashvili · Jun 15

vs Andre Fili · Oct 16

vs Jared Gordon · Oct 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cub SwansonMetricHacran Dias

4.84

Strikes / min

2.08

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

59%

Strike defense

55%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

2.50

63%

Takedown defense

76%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85Δ 2.08 — meaningful gap-1.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cub SwansonHacran Dias

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cub Swanson(10 fights)Hacran Dias(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +153.5|Blue -153.5

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cub SwansonTargetHacran Dias

By target zone

39% acc · 43%

Head

36% acc · 67%

82% acc · 28%

Body

42% acc · 9%

86% acc · 29%

Leg

81% acc · 24%

By position

49% acc · 64%

Distance

43% acc · 98%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

33% acc · 2%

74% acc · 34%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cub Swanson rounds

even

Hacran Dias rounds

Round 1Hacran Dias edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control1:15

Knockdowns1

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control1:41

Knockdowns1

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

83 / 148

Sig Strikes

55 / 131

54.7%

Sig Str %

41.3%

95 / 161

Total Strikes

58 / 136

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:56

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Hacran Dias	20 / 46	20 / 46	0 / 0
1	Cub Swanson	18 / 37	18 / 37	0 / 0
2	Hacran Dias	18 / 44	19 / 46	0 / 1
2	Cub Swanson	30 / 52	36 / 58	0 / 0
3	Hacran Dias	17 / 41	19 / 44	0 / 0
3	Cub Swanson	35 / 59	41 / 66	0 / 0

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights25

Hacran Dias

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8