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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Cub Swanson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1516

Elo1494

Cub SwansonvsDustin PoirierUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDonald · Saturday, February 16, 2013London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Cub Swanson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCub Swanson: Pressure fightervsDustin Poirier: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Cub Swanson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Poirier at -110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Cub Swanson

Red Corner

Dustin Poirier

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1516

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cub SwansonW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23

vs Andre Fili · Jun 24

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26

latest

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cub SwansonMetricDustin Poirier

4.84

Strikes / min

5.24

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

4.57

59%

Strike defense

52%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

1.15

63%

Takedown defense

64%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cub SwansonDustin Poirier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cub Swanson(10 fights)Dustin Poirier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +22.1|Blue -22.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -1.8|Blue +1.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cub SwansonTargetDustin Poirier

By target zone

40% acc · 69%

Head

31% acc · 57%

65% acc · 19%

Body

38% acc · 5%

78% acc · 12%

Leg

88% acc · 38%

By position

42% acc · 78%

Distance

42% acc · 90%

71% acc · 9%

Clinch

56% acc · 9%

67% acc · 14%

Ground

17% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cub Swanson rounds

even

Dustin Poirier rounds

Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:38Control

Round 2Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:47Control

Round 3Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control3:01

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 126

Sig Strikes

58 / 140

45.7%

Sig Str %

41%

80 / 150

Total Strikes

70 / 158

2 / 2

TDs

2 / 9

100%

TD %

17.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:01

Ctrl Time

4:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dustin Poirier	18 / 46	28 / 59	1 / 5
1	Cub Swanson	22 / 49	25 / 52	0 / 0
2	Dustin Poirier	23 / 55	23 / 55	1 / 3
2	Cub Swanson	17 / 39	26 / 49	0 / 0
3	Dustin Poirier	17 / 39	19 / 44	0 / 1
3	Cub Swanson	19 / 38	29 / 49	2 / 2

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights25

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31