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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Cub Swanson won · U-DEC R3

Elo1516

Elo1530

Cub SwansonvsDooho ChoiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis · Saturday, December 10, 2016Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Cub Swanson won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupCub Swanson: Pressure fightervsDooho Choi: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Cub Swanson wins(50.4%)

Actual result: Cub Swanson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cub Swanson at +195 American odds

+$195 profit

$295 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dooho Choi enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Cub Swanson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Dooho Choi has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Cub Swanson has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Cub Swanson

Red Corner

Dooho Choi

Blue Corner

+195

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-235

(70%)

1516

Elo

1530

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cub SwansonW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23

vs Andre Fili · Jun 24

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26

latest

Dooho ChoiW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jeremy Stephens · Jan 18

KOvs Charles Jourdain · Dec 19

KOvs Bill Algeo · Jul 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Dec 24

KOvs Daniel Santos · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cub SwansonMetricDooho Choi

4.84

Strikes / min

4.67

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

4.02

59%

Strike defense

56%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

1.43

63%

Takedown defense

47%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cub SwansonDooho Choi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cub Swanson(10 fights)Dooho Choi(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.8|Blue +13.8

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -29.0|Blue +29.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cub SwansonTargetDooho Choi

By target zone

48% acc · 68%

Head

44% acc · 79%

73% acc · 26%

Body

84% acc · 21%

47% acc · 6%

Leg

0% acc

By position

47% acc · 74%

Distance

41% acc · 70%

85% acc · 20%

Clinch

78% acc · 27%

78% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cub Swanson rounds

even

Dooho Choi rounds

Round 1Dooho Choi edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:11

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 2Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns1

Control1:09

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns1

Control1:11

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

111 / 210

Sig Strikes

77 / 160

50.3%

Sig Str %

47%

122 / 226

Total Strikes

87 / 170

2 / 5

TDs

1 / 5

44.3%

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:31

Ctrl Time

0:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dooho Choi	24 / 47	27 / 50	0 / 2
1	Cub Swanson	19 / 53	22 / 56	0 / 1
2	Dooho Choi	37 / 62	37 / 62	0 / 0
2	Cub Swanson	46 / 80	50 / 85	1 / 1
3	Dooho Choi	16 / 51	23 / 58	1 / 3
3	Cub Swanson	46 / 77	50 / 85	1 / 3

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights25

Dooho Choi

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8