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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Cub Swanson won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1516

Elo1491

Cub SwansonvsDennis SiverUFC Prediction Result

UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · Saturday, July 6, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cub Swanson won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:24

Style matchupCub Swanson: Pressure fightervsDennis Siver: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Dennis Siver wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Cub Swanson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dennis Siver at +167 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Cub Swanson

Red Corner

Dennis Siver

Blue Corner

-178

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+167

(37%)

1516

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'6"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cub SwansonW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23

vs Andre Fili · Jun 24

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26

latest

Dennis Siver

oldest →

vs Nam Phan · Dec 12

vs Charles Rosa · Oct 14

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 15

vs Tatsuya Kawajiri · Jun 15

vs BJ Penn · Jun 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cub SwansonMetricDennis Siver

4.84

Strikes / min

3.87

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

59%

Strike defense

65%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

0.87

63%

Takedown defense

65%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cub SwansonDennis Siver

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cub Swanson(10 fights)Dennis Siver(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +25.1|Blue -25.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cub SwansonTargetDennis Siver

By target zone

40% acc · 74%

Head

9% acc · 38%

67% acc · 14%

Body

60% acc · 23%

45% acc · 12%

Leg

43% acc · 38%

By position

37% acc · 67%

Distance

17% acc · 92%

Clinch

64% acc · 33%

Ground

50% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cub Swanson rounds

even

Dennis Siver rounds

Round 1Dennis Siver edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:06Control

Round 2Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control0:50

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 3Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:13

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 101

Sig Strikes

26 / 144

38.3%

Sig Str %

18.3%

47 / 105

Total Strikes

54 / 174

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 4

100%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:03

Ctrl Time

3:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dennis Siver	10 / 36	38 / 66	1 / 1
1	Cub Swanson	3 / 13	6 / 16	0 / 0
2	Dennis Siver	12 / 75	12 / 75	0 / 2
2	Cub Swanson	17 / 49	18 / 50	1 / 1
3	Dennis Siver	4 / 33	4 / 33	0 / 1
3	Cub Swanson	23 / 39	23 / 39	0 / 0

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights25

Dennis Siver

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights13