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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Cub Swanson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1516

Elo1499

Cub SwansonvsDarren ElkinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Saturday, December 18, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cub Swanson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:12

Style matchupCub Swanson: Pressure fightervsDarren Elkins: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Darren Elkins wins(52.4%)

Actual result: Cub Swanson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darren Elkins at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Cub Swanson

Red Corner

Darren Elkins

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1516

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cub SwansonW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23

vs Andre Fili · Jun 24

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26

latest

Darren Elkins

oldest →

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cub SwansonMetricDarren Elkins

4.84

Strikes / min

3.40

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.34

59%

Strike defense

51%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

2.87

63%

Takedown defense

56%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cub SwansonDarren Elkins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cub Swanson(10 fights)Darren Elkins(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +16.4|Blue -16.4

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cub SwansonTargetDarren Elkins

By target zone

57% acc · 89%

Head

11% acc · 100%

100% acc · 11%

Body

0% acc

Leg

By position

62% acc · 89%

Distance

11% acc · 100%

Clinch

50% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cub Swanson rounds

even

Darren Elkins rounds

Round 1Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:09

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 30

Sig Strikes

2 / 19

60%

Sig Str %

10%

18 / 30

Total Strikes

5 / 22

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:09

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darren Elkins	2 / 19	5 / 22	0 / 2	0
1	Cub Swanson	18 / 30	18 / 30	0 / 0	0

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights25

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30