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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Cub Swanson won · KO/TKO

Elo1516

Elo1489

Cub SwansonvsDaniel PinedaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · Saturday, December 12, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Cub Swanson won

KO/TKO

Style matchupCub Swanson: Pressure fightervsDaniel Pineda: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Cub Swanson wins(63.8%)

Actual result: Cub Swanson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cub Swanson at +132 American odds

+$132 profit

$232 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Pineda enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daniel Pineda threatens submissions; Cub Swanson has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Cub Swanson has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Cub Swanson

Red Corner

Daniel Pineda

Blue Corner

+132

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-152

(60%)

1516

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cub SwansonW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23

vs Andre Fili · Jun 24

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26

latest

Daniel PinedaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Herbert Burns · Aug 20

SUBvs Tucker Lutz · Mar 23

vs Alex Caceres · Jun 23

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 24

vs Darren Elkins · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cub SwansonMetricDaniel Pineda

4.84

Strikes / min

2.85

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

59%

Strike defense

45%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

1.42

63%

Takedown defense

54%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cub SwansonDaniel Pineda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cub Swanson(10 fights)Daniel Pineda(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +26.8|Blue -26.8

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +308.0|Blue -308.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cub SwansonTargetDaniel Pineda

By target zone

69% acc · 76%

Head

32% acc · 43%

64% acc · 15%

Body

75% acc · 14%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

69% acc · 43%

By position

69% acc · 80%

Distance

44% acc · 90%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

67% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cub Swanson rounds

even

Daniel Pineda rounds

Round 1Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns1

Control1:31

Knockdowns1

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:08Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 66

Sig Strikes

21 / 45

71.5%

Sig Str %

43%

51 / 71

Total Strikes

40 / 65

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:34

Ctrl Time

0:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Pineda	16 / 30	35 / 50	1 / 1	1
1	Cub Swanson	31 / 47	34 / 50	1 / 1	0
2	Daniel Pineda	5 / 15	5 / 15	0 / 1	0
2	Cub Swanson	15 / 19	17 / 21	0 / 0	0

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights25

Daniel Pineda

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13