← All fights/Event page

Featherweight

3 Rounds

Cub Swanson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1516

Elo1521

Cub SwansonvsCharles OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort · Saturday, September 22, 2012Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Cub Swanson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:40

Style matchupCub Swanson: Pressure fightervsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Cub Swanson wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Cub Swanson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cub Swanson at +215 American odds

+$215 profit

$315 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Charles Oliveira threatens submissions; Cub Swanson has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Cub Swanson has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Charles Oliveira has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Cub Swanson

Red Corner

Charles Oliveira

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-235

(70%)

1516

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cub SwansonW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23

vs Andre Fili · Jun 24

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26

latest

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cub SwansonMetricCharles Oliveira

4.84

Strikes / min

3.23

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

59%

Strike defense

48%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

2.29

63%

Takedown defense

54%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

2.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cub SwansonCharles Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cub Swanson(10 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.4|Blue +5.4

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cub SwansonTargetCharles Oliveira

By target zone

46% acc · 67%

Head

29% acc · 83%

67% acc · 22%

Body

20% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

45% acc · 100%

Distance

27% acc · 67%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

67% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cub Swanson rounds

even

Charles Oliveira rounds

Round 1Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:46Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 21

Sig Strikes

6 / 18

42%

Sig Str %

33%

9 / 21

Total Strikes

10 / 22

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Oliveira	6 / 18	10 / 22	1 / 2	0
1	Cub Swanson	9 / 21	9 / 21	0 / 0	0

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights25

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36