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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Brian Ortega won · SUB R2

Elo1516

Elo1489

Cub SwansonvsBrian OrtegaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · Saturday, December 9, 2017Fresno, California, USA

Official fight result

Brian Ortega won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:22

Model Prediction: Cub Swanson wins(62.0%)

Actual result: Brian Ortega wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cub Swanson at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brian Ortega threatens submissions; Cub Swanson has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Cub Swanson has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Cub Swanson

Red Corner

Brian Ortega

Blue Corner

+100

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-120

(55%)

1516

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Cub SwansonW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23

vs Andre Fili · Jun 24

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26

latest

Brian OrtegaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22

SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Sep 24

vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Cub SwansonMetricBrian Ortega

4.84

Strikes / min

3.84

3.99

Strikes absorbed / min

6.38

59%

Strike defense

49%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

0.93

63%

Takedown defense

54%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85Δ 3.39 — meaningful gap-2.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Cub SwansonBrian Ortega

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Cub Swanson(10 fights)Brian Ortega(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.1|Blue -27.1

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Cub SwansonTargetBrian Ortega

By target zone

42% acc · 40%

Head

21% acc · 50%

91% acc · 33%

Body

82% acc · 38%

89% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

61% acc · 93%

Distance

30% acc · 83%

80% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Cub Swanson rounds

even

Brian Ortega rounds

Round 1Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Cub Swanson edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:14

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 97

Sig Strikes

24 / 70

61.5%

Sig Str %

33%

60 / 97

Total Strikes

24 / 70

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

0:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brian Ortega	16 / 40	16 / 40	0 / 0	1
1	Cub Swanson	30 / 52	30 / 52	0 / 0	0
2	Brian Ortega	8 / 30	8 / 30	0 / 1	1
2	Cub Swanson	30 / 45	30 / 45	0 / 0	0

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights25

Brian Ortega

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13